Bitcoin falls down the tariff waterfall! Will $74K hold as new support?

Crypto Corner #347 | April 5-11, 2025

Bitcoin Price (in USD): $82,078.44
Weekly Change: -1.02%

---

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin set a much lower weekly high at 84,720.67 before breaking down completely over the weekend, making short work of the weekly low at $81,265.16 on Sunday.

This was exactly what I said I expected to happen in last week’s blog and on posts I made on X - there was no reason to think Bitcoin had suddenly become a “Safe Haven” asset, particularly given its volatility since making the all-time high around $109K.

On Monday, Bitcoin broke through the current cycle low of $76,555.00 as well as the key selloff target of $74,967.12, not setting a new low until $74,420.69, about $40 lower than a key past support from November 7, 2024 at $74,463.96.

Bitcoin saw a “Bull Trap” with every other asset class, rallying on the back of news that Trump paused reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday to create a lower weekly high of $83,583.35, before rolling over with the rest of the market to crash under $80K once more on Thursday.

The Bullish Case

Bulls believe the support at the $74,000 mark is significant and that buyers will continue to step in to buy the dip. Many different technical indicators and fundamental backdrops converge at that price point, so it will be incredibly important for the Bulls to hold that level if they don’t want Bitcoin to drop further.

The Bearish Case

Bears have the narrative on their side. Combine Trump’s flat 10% tariff across the globe, the increased tensions with China, the unknown effects of tariffs on inflation, and the unknown effects of the DOGE team’s cuts at the Federal Government, and investor’s have a “Witch’s Brew” of potential negative news catalysts.

Bears believe that a test of $70K is virtually certain with some predicting the drop will happen with the next week. Stay tuned!

Key Selloff Targets

These key selloffs are derived from past pullbacks from all-time highs as well as various Crypto Winters. Regular readers will notice that I’ve added several new potential levels this week as Bitcoin has broken down to a new cycle low:

• Current Low: $74,420.69 (-31.95% from All-Time High)

• -26.31% = $80,342.16

• -30.27% = $76,024.68

• -31.24% = $74,967.12

• -33.49% = $72,731.35

• -37.63% = $68,204.09

• -39.53% = $65,928.76

• -40.24% = $65,154.67

• -53.06% = $51,330.77

• -62.91% = $40,438.20 ← peak-to-trough selloff during March 2020 COVID

• -77.46% = $24,648.39 ← peak-to-trough selloff during 2021-2022 Crypto Winter

• -84.36% = $17,102.97 ← peak-to-trough selloff during 2017-2018 Crypto Winter

---

Bitcoin Trade Update

Current Allocation: 9.000% (+8.00% since Last Update)
Current Per-Coin Price: $89,315.78 (-1.34% since Last Update)
Current Profit/Loss Status: -8.10% (+0.30% since Last Update)

Bitcoin triggered my first buy order when it collapsed on Sunday, filling my first buy at $80,004.18 (before fees) as it crashed below the $80,000 mark. My lowest buy of the week filled at $74,509.21 (before fees), right above Bitcoin’s low.

I made a total of three (3) buys over the course of the weekend at an average buying price of $76,536.27 (after fees). The buys lowered my per-coin cost -1.34% from $90,525.00 to $89,315.78 and raised my allocation +8.00% from 8.333% to 9.000%.

Premium readers will notice that I’ve added another buy above Bitcoin’s low just in case it tests the low but it doesn’t break through. Since my inkling is that if Bitcoin makes it that low, the support won’t hold, I’ve capped the quantity I’ll put to work there at half what I would normally allocate.

It’s getting fun now, isn’t it?! 😀👍

---

My Next 30 Bitcoin Buy Targets

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to my next thirty (30) … yes, 30 … buys in Bitcoin including price levels and quantities. Additionally, premium members get exclusive access to Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets version of my Bitcoin Trading Calculator.

I also include a tutorial video on how I execute my Trade2HODL strategy that I developed to accommodate crypto’s incredibly volatility after the 2018 crash which has never had a losing trade in more than 150+ trades since I started using it.