What will be Bitcoin's Next Move: $120K or $40K? Place Your Bets!

Crypto Corner #348 | April 12-18, 2025

Bitcoin Price (in USD): $84,579.83
Weekly Change: +3.05%

---

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin saw a decent pop from Friday through the weekend taking it through last week’s high at $83,583.35 as well as through the resistance level at $84,720.67, not stopping until it found a new weekly high at $86,092.99 on Sunday. During the week, Bitcoin continued to demonstrate bullish action, breaking through to a new higher-high at $86,491.40 on Tuesday.

After rallying, Bitcoin traded in a relatively tight trading range (at least comparatively to the past few weeks), neither making a higher weekly high nor breaking through the support low.

The Bullish Case

Bulls believe Bitcoin’s relative strength could indicate a transformation from it being correlated to risk-on assets to actually becoming an alternative to physical gold. Accordingly, many Bulls believe Bitcoin could see a significant breakout to the upside if buyers are able to make the big orange crypto crack through the current resistance levels holding it down.

The Bearish Case

Bears deny the thesis that Bitcoin has become risk-off, instead arguing that the price action has simply lagged the rest of the market. As more and more selling comes to the equity market (and even the bond market), Bears believe that it’s simply a matter of time before Bitcoin breaks back down. Some Bears believe the current cycle low at $74,420.69 won’t hold.

While I still have a substantial allocation on, I have noticed that the current price action feels a lot like the crash in 2018 where the low at $6,000 held for nearly the entire time year before giving out in December. However, when the support finally broke, Bitcoin dropped nearly another -50% before bottoming around $3,150.

In other words, if Bitcoin breaks down, we could be looking at potential lows anywhere from $35,000-$40,000. Additionally, it’s always worth remembering that Bitcoin sold off a total of -84.36% from its then all-time-high in 2017 to its low in 2018 which gives us a downside target of $17,102.97!

Key Selloff Targets

These key selloffs are derived from past pullbacks from all-time highs as well as various Crypto Winters. Regular readers will notice that I’ve added several new potential levels this week as Bitcoin has broken down to a new cycle low:

• Current Low: $74,420.69 (-31.95% from All-Time High)

• -26.31% = $80,342.16

• -30.27% = $76,024.68

• -31.24% = $74,967.12

• -33.49% = $72,731.35

• -37.63% = $68,204.09

• -39.53% = $65,928.76

• -40.24% = $65,154.67

• -53.06% = $51,330.77

• -62.91% = $40,438.20

• -77.46% = $24,648.39

• -84.36% = $17,102.97

---

Bitcoin Trade Update

Current Allocation: 9.000% (Unchanged since Last Update)
Current Per-Coin Price: $89,315.78 (Unchanged since Last Update)
Current Profit/Loss Status: -5.30% (+2.80% since Last Update)

Whenever Bitcoin trades in a tight range, I take my hands and sit on them so I’m not tempted to make any moves. I will start buying at the current cycle low with another small buy, but with a 9.00% allocation already on in this trade, I’m perfectly comfortable with my trade size and see no need to add more without the right opportunity.

If the Bulls are right and Bitcoin’s about to head higher, that’s a high-quality problem and I never worry about high-quality problems! However, if that lower-end support doesn’t hold, I think the potential for a 50%+ crash from here could be in the cards so I’d rather keep more dry powder on the sidelines for better deals at potentially significantly lower prices. 😀👍

---

My Next 30 Bitcoin Buy Targets

Premium subscribers to Get Irked get access to my next thirty (30) … yes, 30 … buys in Bitcoin including price levels and quantities. Additionally, premium members get exclusive access to Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets version of my Bitcoin Trading Calculator.

I also include a tutorial video on how I execute my Trade2HODL strategy that I developed to accommodate crypto’s incredibly volatility after the 2018 crash which has never had a losing trade in more than 150+ trades since I started using it.